Sorry, Barclays Here's What You Got Wrong In Your Oil Forecast

Sorry, Barclays Here’s What You Got Wrong In Your Oil Forecast

by | published April 21st, 2018

The price of oil might just be the single most important number in the modern economy.

Not only does it determine how much it costs you to drive to work, to pick up your kids, or to go get groceries…

But as the fuel that powers almost all transport of goods worldwide, the more expensive oil is, the more everything in life costs – food, medicine, toys, you name it.

Of course, here in Oil & Energy Investor, we also concern ourselves with a third way in which the price of oil affects us – its consequences for energy investments.

For all these, and countless other, reasons, having an accurate picture of where oil prices will be in three, six, twelve months is invaluable.

So it’s no wonder that every investment bank, research outfit, and energy association out there puts out regular oil price forecasts.

But take a closer look at them, and you’ll quickly notice something isn’t quite right.

Here’s what I mean…

In a note last week, investment bank behemoth, Barclays said it expects Brent crude to average $68 a barrel in the second quarter, but sees crude prices collapsing in the back half of 2018.

According to the report, Barclays believes the market has already priced in reduced output from Venezuela, and that the impact of renewed geopolitical tensions have been exaggerated.

“In our view, we think prices are skewed to the upside this quarter, but we’re looking for a correction as we go into the second half of the year and into next year.”

It forecasts the price of Brent will average $63 per barrel this year and $60 per barrel in 2019, approximately 12% and 16% lower than its current price.

Looking at the report myself, I couldn’t help but shake my head.

Simply put, Barclays couldn’t be more wrong.

In fact, I’m expecting at least a 30% increase in prices from here.

Looking at the energy market landscape over the next few months, what’s truly exciting is that in the four decades of my career as an energy analyst I can confidently say that oil prices will hit $100 (or beyond).

Forget geopolitical tensions.

Forget supply and demand.

It all circles back to one thing – Saudi Arabia’s enormous power grip on the oil markets.

As I’ve mentioned in previous issues, the Saudi Aramco IPO (expected to be the largest in the world) is on the horizon.

And once the company does go public, Aramco share prices will also be determined by the price of oil.

To ensure that this is the most financially lucrative situation for the company, Saudi Arabia needs to drive oil prices to $100 to ensure that they siphon as much profit from the IPO as possible.

With that kind of money at stake, it’s easy to see why this will be the financial event of the century.

And although I cannot say with certainty when that will happen, I can help show you how you could make a tremendous profit before Saudi Aramco even goes public.

In fact, I’ve already discovered not one, but four back-door ways that you could use to profit from this historic event, and all you have to do is click here to see the details.



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