The Death of Cheap Oil

The Death of Cheap Oil

by | published May 26th, 2018

The age of chronically weak oil prices is over.

“Lower for longer” was a mantra taken on by Wall Street in the lower oil price environment. But with booming demand, a supply squeeze on the horizon, and geopolitical mayhem pushing crude oil faster than expected this year, the age-old adage is on its last legs.

In fact, there’s a huge – possibly massive – potential disruption on the horizon that could make the age-old adage flat line for good.

Venezuela’s Oil Meltdown

Fresh off the reelection of Nicol├ís Maduro, President Trump slapped new sanctions on Venezuela this week – yet another threat that will choke the Latin American nation’s hobbled oil industry.

The sanctions prohibit U.S. companies from buying debt from the Venezuelan government – a directive that includes Venezuela’s largest oil company, PDVSA – to prevent President Maduro from attempting to sell off his country’s debt and pocketing the profits.

A statement from the White House explained that the order “closes down… loopholes that we saw the regime attempting to exploit.”

But the U.S. won’t be the last country to impose sanctions on the corrupt government: A coalition of 14 nations throughout the Americas have stated that they will not extend Venezuela any credit and would recall their ambassadors from Caracas.

The country is already an overwhelming $6 billion in debt.

And the newly broadened sanctions from the U.S. could even further crush the country’s crude oil output – meaning Venezuela’s economy may find it even harder to recover.

Venezuela’s oil infrastructure has been crumbling for years, and without money to hold it up, it will crumble to dust faster than anyone could imagine.

However, elevated geopolitical tensions like those in Venezuela – whose oil output is barely clearing a million barrels a day from over 3 million just a couple years ago – coupled with Iran’s impending supply woes, will drive oil prices – along with the energy sector as a whole – higher in tandem.

In fact, U.S. crude prices shot up to their highest levels since 2014 – hitting a peak of nearly $73 on Tuesday – as the market digested these new sanctions.

And as of May 15, energy is the top-performing sector for the year, with The S&P 500 Energy Index, which tracks heavy-hitters like Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Marathon Petroleum, and more, is up over 7% year-to-date and 46% since its January 2016 low.

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