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Here’s How to Play the Next Oil Wave

by | published September 20th, 2018

Crude oil prices are rising again.

Much to the relief of oil investors.

The rise has been reflected both by the West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark used for futures contracts set on New York, and Brent, the equivalent set daily in London.

As of close of trade yesterday – which happens at 2:30 for oil – WTI was at $71.12 a barrel, the highest since July 10. Meanwhile, Brent closed slightly higher at $79.23.

I have previously addressed the main reasons for why the price is moving up here in Oil and Energy Investor, and for some time now, the supply side of the market balance has been tightening.

Thanks to this, there is something interesting stirring in the oil sector – something that manifested in a recommendation to my Energy Inner Circle premium subscribers not 24 hours ago.

I don’t often do this, but this is a fast-track recommendation I’m including in Oil & Energy Investor today, because you’re not going to want to miss out on this…

How Geopolitics Are Influencing Oil Benchmarks

The tightening oil supply has been accentuated by the escalating collapse in OPEC’s Venezuela, the nation with the biggest oil reserves worldwide, in addition to the intensifying civil unrest impeding oil production in two other oil cartel members – Libya and Nigeria.  

The extraction declines in these three alone have more than offset earlier concerns about Russia and Saudi Arabia agreeing to increase production.

The Saudis yesterday proclaimed that they were comfortable with the current global production levels. Observers then immediately concluded what Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, had intended the pundits draw from the statement: that no increase in Saudi production would be forthcoming.

That gave a further momentum to upward price movement.

Moscow has been moving more volume over the past several months, anticipating that market tightness allows more Russian oil into the market without a glut depressing price.

On the other hand, I am seeing indicators pointing toward Russia being unable to sustain production any higher beyond where they already are.

The wild card has always been the main outlier to the Russian-OPEC agreement…

The United States.

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The U.S.’s Influence on an Encouraging Oil Spread

WTI prices are now high enough to support profitability for operators in just about any domestic production basin. That means they can leave reserves in the ground, and on occasion export excess lifting volume to global regions paying higher prices. 

True, the ability of U.S. ports to increase crude exports significantly beyond current levels is contained by pipeline, terminal, and other infrastructure limitations.

But that simply adds to the factors obliging restraint on U.S. oil companies.

It is important to remember that the recent escalating rise in company share values is a result of the rising value of the reserves, not the daily production.

All of this adds up to a supply side picture justifying a continuing price rise. And that is before looming U.S. sanctions against Iran’s ability to produce and export crude are factored into the equation.

Given the geopolitical push on prices underway, this should add upward strength to both WTI and Brent. However, the more pronounced impact will be on Brent, as it is the benchmark most used as the standard for oil sales worldwide. This makes it more susceptible to what occurs in the global market than WTI.

Brent has been priced higher than WTI for all but a few trading sessions since mid-August of 2010, reflecting the global market’s preference to using Brent as the benchmark of choice.

The spread, i.e., the difference between the two benchmarks, has also been expanding.

Yesterday, for the twelfth consecutive session, the spread came in double-digit, expressed as a percentage of WTI, the more accurate way of measuring it.

That spread burst into double-digits on September 4, and has remained there ever since.

The last time this happened was in the twenty consecutive sessions between May 24 and June 21, a period in which both crude benchmarks increased markedly in price.

In both periods of the spread expansion of 10% or higher, the impact on price favored Brent.

Which leads me to a very interesting profit opportunity…

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Your “Option” for Profit Potential

The most direct approach to reflect an expectation that the price of Bent would be rising more strongly than WTI would be simply to buy the United States Brent Oil ETF (BNO).

A greater profit potential, however, comes with investing in BNO options.

Now, there is a fundamental difference between stocks, which I normally recommend, and options.

Buying a stock represents shares of ownership in an individual company. Options, on the other hand, is essentially a bet on which direction you think a stock price will go in the future.

With BNO, another consideration is to play calls (the ability for you to buy at a certain price) and puts (the ability for you to sell at a certain price) that have sufficient liquidity to allow an investor to move in and out with ease.

In addition to buying BNO shares outright, the primary recommendation I gave to my Energy Inner Circle folks yesterday is to move on a January 2019 strangle.

Now, a strangle is buying a call option and a put option on the same underlying equity and for the same expiration date, but at different strike prices (the price at which a put or a call option can be exercised).

By buying in both directions, you have better protection regardless of what the market does.

All of which makes a move into options far less risky for the ordinary investor.

In the short time between my Energy Inner Circle buy alert being released and the close of trade for the day, one part of the recommendation improved by 25%, so we are on to something with this one. 

I recommended buying January 2019 $25 calls (BNO190118C00025000) and January 2019 $19 puts (BNO190118P00019000). Do not pay more than $0.60 ($60 for a contract on 100 underlying shares) for the call and more than $0.50 ($50 for a contract on 100 underlying shares) for the put. That limits your combined commitment for the strangle to $1.10 ($0.60 for the call, $0.50 for the put), or $110 on both contracts.

We intend to sell these calls and puts back to the market before the expiration date on January 18, 2019, and I will advise when.

This is only the latest recommendation I had for my Energy Inner Circle subscribers, but I have another top pick in the portfolio. To find out how to get access to that (and the rest of the picks), just click here.

There is certainly something else brewing here quite apart from what the underlying market indicators are telegraphing. Frankly, I had held off on this recommendation until this other development hit…

Why This Opportunity Works

Over the past three trading sessions, an interesting move has been underway on the January 2019 $19 calls. This has become by far the most liquid of any January 2019 BNO option.

But the strategy had resulted in huge differences between last sale ($3.20), bid ($2.10), and ask ($4.50) by close of trade on September 18. This has the earmarks of a “premium” move by one or more heavy hitter that an already “In the Money” (ITM) call will be moving up in what is perceived as an upward environment for the underlying oil price.   

The difference in that call’s sale, bid, and ask contracted a bit yesterday, indicating the move by unknown person or persons was finished.  

Overall, BNO is the way to profit from the oil price move, whether you buy the ETF only or seek to improve profit even further via the options strangle mentioned above.

Things are getting very intriguing these days…

Sincerely,


Kent

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