Where Oil Markets and Geopolitics Collide
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Where Oil Markets and Geopolitics Collide

by | published January 14th, 2020

As we saw with recent oil price spikes during the recent tensions between Iran and the United States, crude is still sensitive to conflict in the Middle East.

This and other global geopolitical developments are central to what I am looking at this week:

1. I’m finalizing an approach to energy investment developments following my latest foreign discussions and this weekend’s follow up conference calls.

2. I’m examining the rising data indicating an inflection in the oil market. At some point in 2020, available oil supply will reverse and come in below demand. That will create a rising floor for oil prices and likely several opportunities to profit.

There’s plenty to look at…

3. I’m analyzing the weak elements in arguments on why the unrest in the Persian Gulf is thus far not impacting OPEC projections on oil exports. Contacts at OPEC’s research wing in Riyadh continue to tell me there are rising pressures on tanker contract pricing that are flowing upstream to effect production costs.

4. And of course I’m looking at scenarios for accelerated Iranian attacks on neighboring oil assets. The relative (emphasis on the relative) quiet on the Iran-U.S. front over the past few days doesn’t mean the conflict is well and truly over.

Sincerely,


Kent

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