Oil & Energy Investor by Dr. Kent Moors

The Next Oil Sprint

by | published January 22nd, 2019

Sometimes, it is not a raw figure so much as a significant development in a trend that tells me what is likely to happen next in the market.

As a result, as we come out of a long holiday weekend, and for the first time in several weeks, I am not fixated on short-term crude oil prices.

Why?

Because West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the daily benchmark crude rate set for New York futures contracts, provided an important technical level at the close of the most recent trading session on Friday, January 18.

It’s what I refer to as the “burst point,” which is one of several indicators I follow daily. A burst point involves what’s called a rolling average. A rolling average adds each new day’s performance while deleting the oldest in a data series.

Now, a burst point occurs when a daily improving performance in oil prices results in that session’s weekly rolling average of at least 6%, a rolling monthly average increase amounting to twice that of the weekly, and a 50-day rolling average exceeding the 200-day rolling average.

This last element is what some of you more technically minded folks may recognize as a variant of something usually called a golden cross. However, the cross in the case of my burst point calculations is one of the elements, not the deciding factor. Oil is hit daily by a number of factors exogenous to the market, which usually make a single technical read insufficient. 

In the current market environment, it may well prove to be very important, as it portends an impending advance in the underlying price of oil.

However, this does not mean a straight move up.

There will be declines, but they are taking place in an overall rise in the price.

Here’s how

The Situation Room: Business As Usual in the 2019 White House

by | published January 21st, 2019

Good morning everyone, and welcome to this week’s Situation Room briefing.

The White House has been pounding the airwaves with rhetoric lately, from the government shutdown to Iranian sanctions to geopolitical dealings. It’s a good thing I get paid to keep track of all this, otherwise I might lose my mind.

Anyway, the geopolitical playing field has been as busy as ever, especially within the oil realm. Before we get to the first two of the four situations I’m watching this week, I want to remind you that the markets are closed today for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.

Now, let’s get started…