Oil & Energy Investor by Dr. Kent Moors

Learning to Dance the Viennese Two-Step

by | published December 7th, 2018

For the past 24 hours, all eyes in the energy sector have been transfixed on Vienna.

Once again, what I have come to call the “Viennese two-step” at OPEC headquarters will translate into crude oil prices moving in the near term.

It also means I get little sleep as the networking among sources is in high gear – not exactly what I need after 22 hours of flights back from Singapore, but the intrigue here beats out jet lag.

The first step on the dance floor is what appears publicly in the press statements coming from the cartel. The second, on the other hand, is the net impact on actual volume in the market.

This latter step often plays out below the surface.

As I write this early on Friday, the world is once again awaiting a move from OPEC in conjunction with primary outside member Russia to bolster global crude oil prices.

The market briefly panicked yesterday when the cartel supposedly finished its meeting without a statement. However, this time around, several of the seasoned TV talking heads had this one right.

OPEC needs the support of Russia to reach an acceptable cut in worldwide production. And the Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak didn’t even land in Vienna until last evening.

Here is what my Saudi, Russian, and Europeans sources are telling me

The Implications of an OPEC Downsize

by | published December 4th, 2018

Yesterday, a week-long rumor finally saw the light of day.

I had heard it prior to my departure for Singapore last week, and it had at the time been the substance of some talk on its potential importance, if true, during our meetings.

Well, it is no longer just a rumor.

This morning, the Qatari Energy Minister Saad Sherida al-Kaabi announced that the Persian Gulf state was leaving OPEC, effective January 1.

Qatar is a minor oil producer, averaging some 600,000 barrels a day, putting it at the bottom of the OPEC ladder, along with Ecuador.

However, it is a major natural gas producer, and the world’s leading exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

But there is a more important reason why the Qatari departure from OPEC is likely to shift the regional tensions into a higher gear.

And it’s not about oil.

It’s all about using natural gas as an increasing global lever